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Analysis Suggests Bitcoin May Mirror Amazon’s Long-Term Rise if Four-Year Cycles Are Over
A recent Bitcoin analysis suggests that if the 4-year cycles have ended, Bitcoin’s next 20 years may mirror Amazon’s long-term growth trajectory. A historical chart tracking Amazon’s stock price from 2002 to 2025 has emerged in current financial discussions, presenting a new avenue through which Bitcoin’s future can be evaluated. Notably, the chart highlights Amazon’s consistent long-term growth amid early skepticism about its profitability.
If the 4 year cycles are really over, don’t be surprised if the next 20 years of Bitcoin goes something like this.
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive)May 5, 2025
The pattern now serves as a reference point as Bitcoin analysts reassess its evolution beyond the familiar four-year halving cycle. Market watchers are now comparing the two assets, particularly in light of changing macroeconomic forces influencing Bitcoin’s price behavior.
From Amazon’s Skepticism to Long-Term Wins
Over two decades, Amazon’s stock (AMZN) climbed from under $1 in the early 2000s to over $230 by 2025. During this period, it weathered multiple downturns and frequent concerns from analysts about its earnings. However, the stock demonstrated resilience, consistently rebounding and forming a long-term upward trajectory. This sustained growth pattern is now being viewed as a possible analogue for Bitcoin, particularly if traditional halving cycles become less dominant. Bitcoin Archive notes that if Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are truly over, its next 20 years could follow a pattern like Amazon’s long-term rise.
Community Reacts
Notably, analysts on X are weighing in on the idea that Bitcoin may be moving beyond its traditional four-year cycles. One user pointed to strong similarities between early skepticism around Amazon and current doubt about Bitcoin, likening missed opportunities in 1999 to ignoring long-term gains today.
The parallels between this & BTC are uncanny… it’s a lot like seeing FUD around Bitcoin & staying away from life changing long term gains…
Imagine seeing this in 1999 & never investing in AMZN stock…
— Nick Moran (@__Nick__Moran__)May 5, 2025
Another market commentator stated that if the four-year cycle has ended, Bitcoin is no longer about chart patterns but instead about navigating liquidity-driven volatility. The user added that over the next 20 years, the focus could shift away from halving narratives and toward broader macroeconomic forces.
Institutional Demand Outpaces Bitcoin Supply
Meanwhile, further data show there is not enough Bitcoin, and that rising institutional interest in Bitcoin is pressuring the available supply. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, only 165,000 BTC are projected to be mined in 2025. However, public companies alone acquired over 95,000 BTC in Q1 2025, signaling a potential supply-demand imbalance. Bitwise also reported that institutional Bitcoin holdings rose by 2.2% during the same quarter, reaching a total value of $56.7 billion. This rapid accumulation suggests that supply may fall short of institutional appetite.
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