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Bitcoin at $104K: Whale Activity and Surging Open Interest Hint at New All-Time High
Bitcoin at $104K: Whale Activity and Surging Open Interest Hint at New All-Time High
May 14, 2025
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As U.S. inflation fell to 2.3% in April, Bitcoin gained momentum. Currently, BTC trades at $103,827, reflecting a surge of nearly 1.5%. Now, Bitcoin is eyeing a new all-time high as recent whale activities suggest further upside ahead.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin shows a rebound from the 50% Fibonacci level, near $75,500. This bounce has driven a nearly 36% price increase over the past 36 days.
The bullish trend triggered a breakout from a falling wedge pattern and surpassed the 78.6% Fibonacci level, around $92,000, as well as the key psychological barrier at $100,000. Currently, Bitcoin is facing resistance at the overhead supply zone near $104,000.
As Bitcoin reaches this critical juncture, technical indicators are signaling a loss of momentum. The RSI has reversed within the overbought zone and now threatens to fall below the 14-day average. Additionally, the MACD and signal lines are close to a bearish crossover. These signals suggest the possibility of a short-term top forming.
If BTC fails to break above the current resistance, a retest of the $97,000 level appears likely. Further support lies at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, near $92,000.
Optimistically, a successful breakout above the $104K resistance could set the stage for a rally toward the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at $127,800.
Declining Whale Inflows
According to a recent tweet by CryptoQuant analyst DarkFost, a divergence has emerged between whale and retail investor activity on Binance. Since early April, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has strengthened. However, whale inflows to exchanges have continued to decline, while retail inflows have surged from $12 billion to $15 billion. Less capital from whales entering exchanges suggests confidence in the market for more upside. Moreover, additional data suggests whales have even accumulated over 83K BTC since last month.
Bullish Sentiments Fuel Bitcoin Futures
As retail inflows grow, optimism in Bitcoin futures has reached new heights. Open interest is approaching the $70 billion mark, currently standing at $67.47 billion. Moreover, more than $36 million in short positions have been liquidated over the past 24 hours, indicating strong bullish dominance.
Currently, the OI-weighted funding rate is 0.0075%, reflecting overall bullish sentiment in the derivatives market. Bitcoin futures traders remain highly optimistic about the continuation of the uptrend and the potential to reach a new all-time high.
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