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Analyst Says the “When XRP Moon” Question is Outdated; Here’s the Real Question
Analyst Says the “When XRP Moon” Question is Outdated; Here’s the Real Question
August 7, 2025
XRP macro analyst Versan Aljarrah says the real question does not revolve around when XRP will moon, but when its price suppression will end. In a post on X, Aljarrah, who founded the Black Swan Capitalist with his brother, alleged that at the $3 price, XRP currently faces suppression through coordinated regulatory and market actions.
Claims of Coordinated Market Suppression of XRP
Aljarrah suggests that these mechanisms, which keep XRP from following the price trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, exist within exchanges, trading algorithms, and regulatory frameworks.
https://t.co/TaIT1bywsH — Versan | Black Swan Capitalist (@VersanAljarrah) August 7, 2025
SEC Lawsuit and U.S. Market Restrictions
The analyst revisited the SEC’s December 2020 lawsuit against Ripple, which accused the company of selling unregistered securities. Aljarrah claims the timing was strategic, halting XRP’s rise just as it gained institutional exposure via MoneyGram and other partners. He noted that following the lawsuit, major U.S. exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken delisted XRP. This move limited retail investor access and froze institutional interest within the United States.
Interestingly, XRP community figure “All Things XRP” echoed similar sentiment last year when he revisited the impact of the SEC’s 2020 lawsuit against Ripple, arguing the damage went far beyond price. The commentator says the lawsuit also stalled the project’s growth, disrupted innovation, and drained investor momentum.
Ripple’s Global Expansion and Hidden Utility
Speaking further, Aljarrah said despite domestic challenges, Ripple has continued to grow its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) network abroad. ODL uses XRP to settle cross-border payments. However, Aljarrah claims that the system processes much of this volume off-exchange through private corridors and OTC desks. He suggests that this setup helps avoid slippage and limits price impact on public markets. “XRP is being used,” he wrote, “but the price impact is being rerouted.”
Institutional Access and Retail Exclusion of XRP
Aljarrah believes that while the market restricted retail interest in the U.S., institutions gained early access to XRP via private investment vehicles and regulatory sandboxes. He suggests that accumulation took place behind closed doors, away from public view. He maintains that significant transaction flows involving XRP are taking place, but they do not appear on public trading charts. To him, this helps explain how XRP can be actively used for settlements while its market price stays relatively unchanged.
Notably, this is not the first time there has been questions about XRP price suppression. Wealth advisor and XRP supporter Mickle raised concerns about CoinMarketCap’s method for calculating XRP’s market cap, calling it misleading. He claimed the platform uses an arbitrary circulating supply figure of 56 billion XRP, excluding tokens held in Ripple’s escrow. Mickle argued that since XRP moves in and out of escrow regularly, most tokens have been part of the circulating supply at some point, and excluding over 40 billion from calculation undervalues XRP’s actual market size.
Interestingly, Max Avery had claimed that the suppression of XRP is fading after Ripple’s partial court win against the SEC. He argues the crackdown under Gary Gensler aimed to delay crypto, not stop it, giving traditional finance time to adapt. Notably, Ripple’s case with the SEC remains unsettled.
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