As Bitcoin navigates through 2024, market analysts are closely monitoring its performance in relation to its most recent April halving event.
Historical patterns from previous halvings suggest a potential surge in the fourth quarter, with 2024’s price action showing striking similarities to past years.
Analyst Ali Martinez recently
noted
how the current trends reflect those of 2016 and 2020, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior might once again drive substantial gains.
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Comparing 2024 with Past Halving Years
Martinez’s analysis compares Bitcoin’s performance in 2016, 2020, and 2024, each marked by distinct yet related trends. In 2016, Bitcoin’s cumulative return index remained steady with mild fluctuations before a significant uptrend started near the 275th day. By the end of Q4, Bitcoin had gained approximately 61%, with the return index closing just above 2.
Bitcoin Return Index CryptoQuant
The 2020 cycle, represented by a pink line on Martinez’s chart, showcased a more aggressive growth trajectory.
Bitcoin’s
cumulative returns grew steadily throughout the year, with minor corrections along the way.
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The most dramatic movement occurred in Q4, when Bitcoin surged by 171%, with the return index value surpassing 4 by year-end.
In 2024, the pattern appears to mirror 2020 closely, particularly in the latter part of the year. The purple line on Martinez’s chart shows a similar early-year growth with periods of sideways movement, followed by an upward trend beginning near the 250th day.
While the full impact of 2024 remains to be seen, the parallels with previous halving years suggest a potential rally in Q4, echoing historical performance.
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Bitcoin’s Dominance Shift?
Amid this anticipated Bitcoin breakout, Martinez observes a shift in market dynamics that could pave the way for an altcoin season. His analysis, in a separate post, suggests that Bitcoin dominance may be topping out, hinting at a potential dip to around 47%.
Martinez’s observations align with his broader view of the altcoin market, which appears ready to surpass $1 trillion. In
another post
, he highlights a symmetrical triangle pattern forming in the altcoin market cap, suggesting a potential breakout as the pattern nears its convergence point.
This setup, characterized by a series of lower highs and higher lows, points to an upcoming market movement, which could further validate the onset of an altcoin season.
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