The ongoing decline of Bitcoin following its halving closely resembles the patterns observed during the bull market cycle from 2015 to 2017, indicating a potentially similar trajectory.
Today, Bitcoin retraced to the $49,000 price range for the first time in over seven months. This drop occurred after Bitcoin’s value plummeted from a high of $61,000 to $49,000, representing a significant correction of nearly 20% in just one day.
The crypto market has been eagerly anticipating a new all-time high for Bitcoin since its latest halving, but the asset has consistently remained at low values. On April 20, the day of the halving, Bitcoin traded at $65,442, but it has since declined by approximately 26%.
Experienced market observers have noticed a striking historical resemblance in this performance, offering potential insights into the future trajectory of the asset.
In a recent update, veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that the latest Bitcoin retracement is similar to the one observed during the 2015 to 2017 halving bull market cycle.
According to the data, the second Bitcoin halving took place on July 9, 2016, with BTC closing at $650 during that week. However, the asset dropped to a low of $470 weeks later, experiencing a post-halving decline of 27%.
Brandt’s graph showed that Bitcoin faced a resistance barrier at $790, which it had to overcome to enter new price territory. Eventually, it surpassed this hurdle and reached a new cycle high of approximately $20,000 after 24 weeks.
In the third halving cycle, Bitcoin only dropped 10% post-halving before reaching a new all-time high of around $69,000 after 25 weeks.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already experienced a 26% decline, similar to the 2015/2017 cycle. It is still within its halving year and has spent 16 weeks consolidating.
Bitcoin is currently struggling with a significant resistance barrier at $73,800 and has failed multiple times to defend the $70,000 threshold once it re-entered.
Notably, there are 6.96 million wallets holding 3.75 million BTC within the price range of $62,344.91 to $72,500, making it a significant barrier.
Some commentators have challenged Brandt’s view, pointing out key differences such as Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before its recent halving, which deviates from past trends. Additionally, the current global recession indicators are seen as unique bearish pressures for Bitcoin in this cycle.
At present, Bitcoin has settled at around $52,023, stabilizing after the intense volatility experienced earlier today.
Disclaimer: This article provides information and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect the opinion of The Crypto Basic. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
