Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant breakthrough, with key resistance levels within reach, according to analyst Ali Martinez. Martinez has identified $65,795 as a critical point, indicating a potential surge to $78,700 if this level is breached. This analysis is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands from Glassnode, which highlight crucial support and resistance areas.
The $65,795 resistance level is marked by the +0.5 standard deviation line on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, historically posing challenges for Bitcoin. In April 2024, Bitcoin approached the +1 standard deviation but could not maintain that level, leading to a correction.
Martinez also noted Bitcoin’s historical performance, which shows a strong recovery in July following a negative June. On average, Bitcoin has shown a return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July, adding to the optimism surrounding its potential for a breakout.
Whales are also accumulating Bitcoin, according to a recent alert from CryptoQuant, published by CEO Ki Young Ju. As of June 30, 2024, the balance of large Bitcoin investors stood at 3,632,342 BTC, with a 30-day percentage balance change of 5.629%, indicating confidence among large investors and potentially leading to higher Bitcoin prices.
However, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling off their holdings, with 200,000 BTC sold in May and June 2024, amounting to $10 billion and $1.2 billion in May and June, respectively. This trend has contributed to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market price.
Despite these sell-offs, CryptoQuant identifies $56,000 as a significant support level for Bitcoin. Any major bearish volatility is expected to find support at this price point. Failure to maintain this level could lead to further corrections, potentially to $54,000, as suggested by prominent analyst Willy Woo. Woo attributes recent price retests to excessively leveraged positions and miner sell-offs, indicating a need for market stabilization before a sustainable uptrend can resume.
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